Quantifying the evolutionary mechanism of COVID-19 impact on international construction multi-projects: a risk driver perspective

Abstract

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to quantify the evolutionary mechanism of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) impact on international construction multi-projects.Design/methodology/approach From three concepts of complexity, stressor and detractor risks, a multi-project simulation model under COVID-19 outbreak is proposed to study the characteristics of contingency with three peaks of ordered and disordered states. Specially, COVID-19 brings forth mitigation fee, epidemic prevention fee, holdup fee and schedule delay fee of multi-projects. By integrating parametric model, Monte Carlo and chaos theory, a comparative analysis of its contingency with or without COVID-19 is conducted. Summarizing the simulated results, their total contingencies at certain risk tolerance are obtained at two status of static at one-time point and dynamic over time. Meanwhile, some major risks including detractors, complexities and stressors are screened out for mitigation, especially for epidemic prevention and control. Eventually, the real case is illustrated to demonstrate its validity.Findings It provides a quantitative analysis framework for the impact of epidemic, a once-in-a-century black swan event with a long tail, on construction multi-projects.Practical implications It conduct an effective model to quantify impacts of COVID-19 on international construction multi-projects for implementing effective counter-measures, which lay foundation for claims among different stakeholders.Originality/value The term of detractor risk is applied to describe COVID-19 and quantify its impact upon international construction multi-projects. Further, a hybrid model by integrating parametric model and Monte Carlo in type I/II model is proposed to simulate their contingencies at disordered states. Finally, the simulated outcomes of these models are used to guide effective risk control to meet the requirements by the client.