Abstract
Abstract This paper quantifies the impact of the El Nino–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) on the intensity and occurrence probability of dry and wet periods in Iran during boreal autumn and winter. Three phases (warm, cold, and neutral) were defined based on the Southern Oscillation (SO) status, and precipitation composites were constructed for each phase. The 30th and 70th percentiles of neutral phases were used as the thresholds for distinguishing normal conditions from dry and wet anomalies, respectively. The shifts in the amount and occurrence probability of these thresholds associated with warm and cold ENSO phases were then quantified. It has been found that, compared to the neutral period, warm events substantially reduce (increase) the intensity and occurrence probability of autumnal drought (wet) periods, particularly for southern districts. On the other hand, when a vigorous La Nina prevails, the chance of wet (dry) conditions is low (high) and the probability of severe autumnal drought is intensifie...
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