Quantifying the effectiveness of brucellosis control strategies in northern China using a mechanistic and data-driven model

Abstract

In recent years, with the frequent movement of livestock and related products on the Chinese mainland that have resulted in a rise in brucellosis cases in certain regions, the Chinese government has implemented “vaccination + culling” strategy to control the spread of brucellosis, but the epidemiological situation and the intensity of prevention and control measures vary from province to province, and much of the situation has not yet been reversed. Thus, it is crucial to understand and assess the combined effects of vaccination and culling on brucellosis transmission behind the data from multiple provinces and cities. In this paper, we combine an ordinary differential equation model and a deep neural network model to develop a hybrid model that not only characterizes the propagation mechanism of brucellosis, but also describes control strategies as time-varying parameters to track the dynamic evolution of brucellosis transmission under control measures with varying intensity. In addition, the real-time reproduction number is calculated and taken as an evaluation index. We then train and test the hybrid model using actual data from four provincial administrative regions in Northern China from 2010 to 2020. It is found that in Inner Mongolia, the sheep vaccination rate (θ(t)) and the culling rate of infected sheep (c(t)) have a weak effect on reducing the brucellosis transmission. In Gansu, the incomplete culling of infected sheep was the main reason for the increase in human brucellosis cases after the introduction of whole-flock vaccination in 2016. Culling and vaccination contributed to the decrease in human cases in both Xinjiang and Jilin. Prevention and control measures for human brucellosis are inadequate in Xinjiang. However, prevention and control measures for human brucellosis are inadequate, while indirect transmission of Brucella from the environment to humans and sheep poses a greater risk than direct contact with infected sheep in Jilin. The above analysis can provide theoretical foundation for decision-making on public health policies to control the pandemic.