Quantifying the contribution of atmospheric circulation to precipitation variability and changes in the US Great Plains and southwest using self-organizing map–analogue

Abstract

Abstract. The Great Plains and southwest regions of the US are highly vulnerable to precipitation-related climate disasters such as droughts and floods. In this study, we propose a self-organizing map–analogue (SOMA) approach to empirically quantify the contribution of atmospheric moist circulation (mid-tropospheric geopotential and column moisture transport) to the regional precipitation anomalies, variability, and multi-decadal changes. Our results indicate that moist circulation contributes significantly to short-term precipitation variability, accounting for 54 %–61 % of the total variance in these regions, though these contributions vary significantly across seasons. As indicated in previous research, Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) is one of the major climate modes influencing the long-term multi-decadal variation in precipitation. By contrasting three multi-decadal periods (1950–1976, 1977–1998, 1999–2021) with shifting PDO phases and linking the phase shift to self-organizing map (SOM) nodes, we found that circulation changes contribute considerably to the multi-decadal changes in precipitation anomaly in terms of the mean and days of dry and wet extremes, especially for the southern Great Plains (GP) and southwest. However, these circulation-induced changes are not totally related to the PDO phase shift (mostly less than half) since internal variability or anthropogenically induced changes in circulation can also be potential contributors. Our approach improves upon flow analogue and SOM-based methods and provides insights into the contribution of atmospheric circulation to regional precipitation anomalies and variability.