Quantifying the climate exposure of priority habitat constrained to specific environmental conditions: Boreal aapa mires

Abstract

Climate velocity is an increasingly used metric to detect habitats, locations and regions which are exposed to high rates of climate change and displacement. In general, velocities are measured based on the assumption that future climatically similar locations can occur anywhere in the study landscape. However, this assumption can provide a biased basis for habitats which are constrained to specific environmental conditions. For such habitats, a set of selected suitable locations may provide ecologically more realistic velocity measures. Here, we focus on one environmentally constrained habitat, aapa mires, which are peat-accumulating EU Habitats Directive priority habitats, whose ecological conditions and biodiversity values may be jeopardised by climate change. We assess the climate exposure of aapa mires in Finland by developing velocity metrics separately for the whole ≥10 ha aapa mire complexes (‘aapa mires’) and their wettest flark-dominated parts (‘flark fens’). Velocity metrics were developed for six bioclimatic variables (growing degree days (GDD5), mean January and July temperatures, annual precipitation, and May and July water balance, based on climate data for 1981–2010 and for 2040–2069 as derived from global climate models for two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5). For the six variables, velocities were calculated based on the distance between climatically similar present-day and nearest future mire, divided by the number of years between the two periods, and by excluding the unsuitable matrix. Both aapa mires and flark fens showed high exposure (>5 km/year) to changes in January temperature, and often also considerably high velocities for GDD5 and July temperatures. The flark fens showed significantly higher climate velocities than the aapa mires and had a smaller amount of corresponding habitat in their surroundings. Thus, many of the studied mires, particularly the flark fens, are likely to face increased risks of exposure due to changes in winter and summer temperatures. Moreover, considerable changes in precipitation-related conditions may occur at the southern margin of the aapa mire zone. Our results show that specifically tailored climate velocity metrics can provide a useful quantitative tool to inform conservation and management decisions to support the ecosystem sustainability of this EU Habitats Directive biotope and targeting restoration towards the most vulnerable aapa mires.