Quantifying the air quality, climate and equity implications of India's household energy transition

Abstract

Economic growth, urbanization and changes in lifestyles are leading to a transition from traditional fuels to liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) and electricity in Indian households. We use National Sample Survey data – 43rd (1987–88) and 68th (2011−12) rounds – to show that contrary to concerns about rising greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from fossil-fuel use, switching to LPG and electricity provides health and climate benefits, if non-Kyoto emissions are considered. Our modelled household energy transition scenarios (2011–2030) show that: one, adoption of LPG by 2030 in Business-As-Usual (BAU) projections results in 80% of urban India meeting the World Health Organization's (WHO) indoor PM 2.5 guidelines. In rural households, persistent use of firewood does not significantly improve indoor air quality across the income spectrum. Two, BAU scenario projects only a 3% rise in rural GHG emissions by 2030, driven by a transition away from kerosene lighting in spite of rising electricity consumption. Three, a complete transition to LPG and electricity by 2030 reduces PM 2.5 exposure to below WHO guidelines across all urban and rural households. This is not achieved in the other partial transition scenarios. Four, across scenarios improving coal-based power plant efficiency to 40% and increasing renewables' share to 40% lead to a decrease of 14–18% in GHG emissions by 2030 relative to 2011. Finally, improved biomass cookstoves can reduce indoor exposure by 75–86% but not below the WHO guideline, and result in higher GHG emissions compared to LPG replacement due to non-Kyoto emissions from burning firewood.