Quantifying social vulnerability to natural hazards in Botswana: An application of cutter model

Abstract

An assessment of social vulnerability to natural hazards poses an enormous challenge for disaster risk reduction efforts across the World. For successful implementation of risk reduction and mitigation measures, it is important to perform coupled Geospatial and statistical analysis of social vulnerability. The use of multiple indicators to define vulnerability is also important for identifying vulnerable people and vulnerable places. The study examined the applicability of the Place Vulnerability Model in Botswana, as well as to analyse underlying factors contributing to social vulnerability to natural hazards. For data analysis, census district level data from Botswana 2011 Population and Housing Census were mainly used. Principal Component Analysis was conducted and three factors of social vulnerability accounted for 81.06% of the variance among the social vulnerability indicator variables in the dataset. They include: vulnerability preparedness, socio-economic status; and vulnerable population groups. The Social Vulnerability Index (SoVI) scores reveal that the census districts with the highest vulnerability scores are Ngamiland West and Central Tutume. The districts with the least vulnerability are concentrated in the south (Jwaneng) and central (Orapa). There are urban-rural differentials in terms of the distribution of socio-economic developments, hence high vulnerability in rural areas as compared to the urban centres. This study confirms that the Social Vulnerability Index developed for the United States is applicable in Botswana. The application of Botswana situation is meant to contribute towards the development of social vulnerability to natural hazards in sub-Saharan Africa.