Quantifying Sectoral Carbon Footprints in Türkiye’s Largest Metropolitan Cities: A Monte Carlo Simulation Approach

Abstract

Urbanization is a substantial contributor to greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, a pivotal factor in climate change. Climate change represents a global predicament impacting all nations, necessitating collaboration among numerous countries to curtail GHG emissions. An essential step to overcome this problem is the accurate measurement, calculation, and modelling of the amount of damage inflicted on the atmosphere. Therefore, carbon footprints (CFs) originating from various sources are calculated. This study calculates the CF of different sectors in metropolitan cities in Türkiye, which are Istanbul, Ankara, and Izmir, for the years 2015–2020 using the Tier 1 and Tier 2 approaches outlined in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) methodology. Additionally, to account for uncertainties in activity data and emission factors and calculate the potential emission range, a Monte Carlo simulation (MCS) was conducted. Analysis of Tier 1 results revealed the highest emissions consistently occurring in Istanbul across all years, while emissions from other cities exhibited variability annually. Notably, average MCS results surpassed the total emission quantities derived at the study’s conclusion for all cities and years, underscoring the influence of uncertainties. The study results align with the calculated 95% confidence interval, affirming the robustness within the specified statistical framework.