Abstract
A system that utilizes an ensemble of streamflow forecasts as input to the Truckee-Carson RiverWare © operational forecast model has been developed to provide operators and stakeholders with an ensemble of operational forecasts. This ensemble of operational forecasts allows users to estimate uncertainty and perform risk-based analyses to assist with operational decisions. The ensemble of streamflow forecasts are provided by the River Forecast Center's Ensemble Streamflow Prediction program which generates the forecasts based upon current hydrologic conditions and historic meteorology records. The streamflow forecasts are input hydrographs for the operational forecast model. The operational forecast model is run once for each trace of the ensemble streamflow forecast. During each run the model simulates daily operation of the river according to current basin policy. Select output is then collected from each run to be analyzed statistically, providing estimates of risk and uncertainty in the operational forecast. The RiverWare © Multiple Run Management tool is employed to facilitate the efficient use of the ensemble forecasts for daily operational decisions. This tool provides an automated process for performing multiple model runs with varying input and compiling select output within one file. An overview of the process and a sample application on Lake Tahoe precautionary release operations will be presented.
Talk to us
Join us for a 30 min session where you can share your feedback and ask us any queries you have
Schedule a callDisclaimer: All third-party content on this website/platform is and will remain the property of their respective owners and is provided on "as is" basis without any warranties, express or implied. Use of third-party content does not indicate any affiliation, sponsorship with or endorsement by them. Any references to third-party content is to identify the corresponding services and shall be considered fair use under The CopyrightLaw.
