Abstract
A scheme using satellite-derived irradiance measurements to model the feed-in power of residential photovoltaic (PV) systems in a low voltage distribution grid is described. It is validated against smart meter measurements from a test site with 12 residential PV systems in the city of Ulm, Germany, during May 2013 to December 2014. The PV feed-in power is simulated in a 15-min time resolution based on irradiance data derived from Meteosat Second Generation satellite images by the physically based retrieval scheme Heliosat-4. The PV simulation is based on the nominal power and location of the PV systems as provided by the distribution system operator. Orientation angles are taken from high resolution aerial laser-scan data. The overall average mean error of PV feed-in power is 4.6% and the average root-mean-squared error is 12.3% for the individual systems. Relative values are given with respect to the total installed power of 152.3kWp. Sensitivity studies discuss the need for knowing the exact orientation angles of each individual PV system or the usefulness of a single ground-based measurement as alternative to satellite observations. As an application of the scheme, the modelling of the effect of the power flow from the residential PV on the load flow of the low voltage distribution grid transformer is described and illustrates the advantage of the discussed approach for distribution system operators.
Highlights
In Germany, the majority of photovoltaic (PV) systems is installed in residential areas and connected to the low voltage distribution electricity grids
The calculation of the PV power feed-in starts 15th May 2013 and ends 14th December 2014 because of the availability of the smart meters provided by the distribution system operators (DSO) measurement campaign
They are derived from Meteosat Second Generation (MSG) satellite images with a 15-min time resolution based on the Heliosat-4 approach (Oumbe et al, 2014; Lefèvre et al, 2013)
Summary
In Germany, the majority of photovoltaic (PV) systems is installed in residential areas and connected to the low voltage distribution electricity grids. Besides the load in the low voltage grid segment, the variable PV generation needs to be simulated as a sum of the individual PV systems The latter is a function of the respective PV system type and size as well as the irradiance on the module plane at each PV system. Bucher et al (2012) used 15-min satellite data to derive statistical values for a given location to generate synthetic high resolution PV feed-in power profiles by Monte-Carlo simulations These synthetic PV feed-in power profiles are used for the calculation of the hosting capacity for distributed PV systems in grids, taking into account various load profiles. Verso et al (2015) use satellite-based time series of irradiances All these studies focus on the theoretical solar potential on roofs in urban sites and not on the feed-in power of existing PV systems.
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