Quantifying Reductions in Plasmodium falciparum Infectivity to Mosquitos: A Sample Size Calculator to Inform Clinical Trials on Transmission-Reducing Interventions.

Abstract

Malaria transmission depends on the presence of mature Plasmodium transmission stages (gametocytes) that may render blood-feeding Anopheles mosquitos infectious. Transmission-blocking antimalarial drugs and vaccines can prevent transmission by reducing gametocyte densities or infectivity to mosquitos. Mosquito infection outcomes are thereby informative biological endpoints of clinical trials with transmission blocking interventions. Nevertheless, trials are often primarily designed to determine intervention safety; transmission blocking efficacy is difficult to incorporate in sample size considerations due to variation in infection outcomes and considerable inter-study variation. Here, we use clinical trial data from studies in malaria naive and naturally exposed study participants to present an online sample size calculator tool. This sample size calculator allows studies to be powered to detect reductions in the proportion of infected mosquitos or infection burden (oocyst density) in mosquitos. The utility of this online tool is illustrated using trial data with transmission blocking malaria drugs.