Quantifying increased groundwater demand from prolonged drought in the East African Rift Valley

Evan A Thomas,Joseph Needoba,Doris Kaberia,John Butterworth,Emily C Adams,Phoebe Oduor,Denis Macharia,Faith Mitheu,Robinson Mugo,Corey Nagel

doi:10.1016/j.scitotenv.2019.02.206

Abstract

Millions of people in the arid regions of Kenya and Ethiopia face water scarcity and frequent drought. Water resource forecasting and reliable operation of groundwater distribution systems may improve drought resilience. In this study, we examined three remote sensing data sets against in-situ sensor-collected groundwater extraction data from 221 water points serving over 1.34 million people across northern Kenya and Afar, Ethiopia between January 1, 2017 and August 31, 2018. In models containing rainfall as a binary variable, we observed an overall 23% increase in borehole runtime following weeks with no rainfall compared to weeks preceded by some rainfall. Further, a 1 mm increase in rainfall was associated with a 1% decrease in borehole use the following week. When surface water availability is reduced during the dry seasons, groundwater demand increases. Our findings emphasize the imperative to maintain functionality of groundwater boreholes in these regions which often suffer drought related emergencies. Funding provided by the United States Agency for International Development, the World Bank, the National Science Foundation, and the Cisco Foundation. The views expressed in this article do not necessarily reflect the views of the United States Agency for International Development or the United States Government.

Highlights

Access to freshwater is a key challenge, exacerbated by the changing climate (Vörösmarty et al, 2000; Arnell, 1999)
Millions of people living in the arid, drought prone regions of the East African Rift Valley, including parts of Ethiopia and Kenya, are facing significant threat from a lack of safe, reliable and affordable water (Shiferaw et al, 2014; Viste et al, 2013)
Low rainfall conditions were prevalent across the study area, with no observed rainfall during 65.7% of weekly intervals in Kenya and 47.7% in Ethiopia

Summary

Introduction

Access to freshwater is a key challenge, exacerbated by the changing climate (Vörösmarty et al, 2000; Arnell, 1999). Millions of people living in the arid, drought prone regions of the East African Rift Valley, including parts of Ethiopia and Kenya, are facing significant threat from a lack of safe, reliable and affordable water (Shiferaw et al, 2014; Viste et al, 2013). The more recent 2016 drought in Kenya resulted in over 3 million people facing food insecurity (Uhe et al, 2017). These recent drought conditions represent an acute threat, and highlight the urgency of environmental changes driving water shortage and creating a public health and security emergency

Methods

Results

Conclusion