Quantifying food consumption supply risk: An analysis across countries and agricultural products

Abstract

Resource criticality is the field of study that quantifies supply risks for a set of resources. To assess the vulnerability of a country's food supply, whether domestically produced or imported, supply risk indexes for agricultural products have been developed by adapting a resource criticality method and a supply diversity model. These indexes take into account both the diversity of supply and the risks to which each sourcing option is exposed, such as climate or price volatility.The results enable a comparison of the supply risk of food consumption between different countries and identification of the products with the highest risk of supply disruption for each country. When analysed by region, the results indicate that North America and Europe generally have lower supply risk across all products than the rest of the world, while African and Sub-Saharan countries tend to have the highest supply risk. Furthermore, the analysis of supply risks for four cereals - wheat, maize, rice, and sorghum - indicates that trade diversification can reduce supply risks for wheat and maize in many countries. However, for rice and sorghum, supply risk reduction will most likely be achieved through stockpiling, export redirection, and adaptation of agriculture to climate change. The results highlight the importance of supply risk indexes for decision-making, particularly when compared to self-sufficiency. Finally, limitations and new perspectives are discussed, including the need to adapt the index to nutritional data, consider competition for agricultural product usage, and refine climate or economic risk indexes.