Quantifying China's iron in-use stock and its driving factors analysis

Abstract

China is experiencing unprecedented industrialization and urbanization which promotes the rapid growth of iron resource consumption and in-use stock. The material flow analysis (MFA) model and the average use life method were applied to analyze China's iron in-use stock (IIUS), and the IIUS reached 7.07 billion tons in 2016 in the reference scenario. Three driving factors of the intensity of IIUS were analyzed. Among them, the per capita IIUS was rising, and it was 5.11 t/cap in 2016 in the reference scenario. In addition, the per capita crude steel output has stabilized, which was 0.58 t/cap in 2016. The intensity of crude steel use was declining and showed the inverted U-shape. The decoupling indicator was applied to analyze the relationship between IIUS and economic growth. The decoupling of IIUS from economic growth was later than that of actual iron consumption, and the IIUS did not decoupling from economic growth in recent years. The actual iron consumption has continued to decoupling from economic growth since 2010, and the decoupling indicator peaked at 1.76 in 2015. The future per capita IIUS was predicted in different scenario and the relationship between future IIUS and GDP was analyzed. The per capita IIUS will reach saturation in 2030–2040, and the intensity of IIUS also conforms to the inverted U-shape.