Abstract
This study examined the impact of climate change on plant species diversity of a savanna ecosystem, through an assessment of climatic trends over a period of forty years (1974–2014) using Masvingo Province, Zimbabwe, as a case study. The normalised difference vegetation index (NDVI) was used as a proxy for plant species diversity to cover for the absence of long-term historical plant diversity data. Observed precipitation and temperature data collected over the review period were compared with the trends in NDVI to understand the impact of climate change on plant species diversity over time. The nonaligned block sampling design was used as the sampling framework, from which 198 sampling plots were identified. Data sources included satellite images, field measurements, and direct observations. Temperature and precipitation had significant (p < 0.05) trends over the period under study. However, the trend for seasonal total precipitation was not significant but declining. Significant correlations (p < 0.001) were identified between various climate variables and the Shannon index of diversity. NDVI was also significantly correlated to the Shannon index of diversity. The declining trend of plant species in savanna ecosystems is directly linked to the decreasing precipitation and increasing temperatures.
Highlights
Climate change is associated with high biological and physical alterations within ecosystems, as it is the main factor that determines where species live, their interactions, and the timing of biological events [1]
Studies indicate that climate change has become the greatest driver of biodiversity loss, mainly due to extreme climate events such as heatwaves and prolonged and intensified droughts, which have increased in intensity in the last decade [5,6]
Rainfall and temperature data for weather stations within the province were obtained from the Zimbabwe Meteorological Services Department (ZMSD)
Summary
Climate change is associated with high biological and physical alterations within ecosystems, as it is the main factor that determines where species live, their interactions, and the timing of biological events [1]. Apart from being a rich source of biodiversity and habitat to a wide range of wildlife, savanna ecosystems provide crucial ecosystem services that include carbon sequestration, water filtration, soil stability, meat and dairy production, fuelwood provision, tourism and recreation, among other services [10] This important ecosystem is under threat from land use/cover changes, climate change, veld-fires and agricultural extensification [6,10]. The predicted effects under savanna conditions in southern Africa are complex and their magnitude of climate change impacts is less understood [12] This is attributed mainly to lack of data, which often results in misinformation to policy- and decision-makers on the impact of climatic change on plant species dynamics [1].
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