Quantifying Causal Pathways of Teleconnections

Marlene Kretschmer,Alberto Arribas,Rachel Prudden,Elena Saggioro,Samantha V Adams,Niall Robinson,Theodore G Shepherd

doi:10.1175/bams-d-20-0117.1

Marlene Kretschmer, Alberto Arribas + Show 5 more

Open Access

https://doi.org/10.1175/bams-d-20-0117.1

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Abstract

Abstract Teleconnections are sources of predictability for regional weather and climate, but the relative contributions of different teleconnections to regional anomalies are usually not understood. While physical knowledge about the involved mechanisms is often available, how to quantify a particular causal pathway from data are usually unclear. Here, we argue for adopting a causal inference-based framework in the statistical analysis of teleconnections to overcome this challenge. A causal approach requires explicitly including expert knowledge in the statistical analysis, which allows one to draw quantitative conclusions. We illustrate some of the key concepts of this theory with concrete examples of well-known atmospheric teleconnections. We further discuss the particular challenges and advantages these imply for climate science and argue that a systematic causal approach to statistical inference should become standard practice in the study of teleconnections.

Highlights

AFFILIATIONS: Kretschmer and Shepherd—Department of Meteorology, University of Reading, Reading, United Kingdom; Adams—Informatics Lab, Met Office, Exeter, United Kingdom; Arribas—Department of Meteorology, University of Reading, and Microsoft, Reading, United Kingdom; Prudden—Informatics Lab, Met Office, and University of Exeter, Exeter, United Kingdom; Robinson—Met Office, Exeter, United Kingdom; Saggioro—Department of Mathematics and Statistics, University of Reading, Reading, United Kingdom
Several other climate modes such as the Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO), the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO), the Indian Ocean dipole (IOD), and the Pacific decadal oscillation (PDO) have been described, and their interconnections as well as their remote impacts have been extensively studied using observations, climate models and physical theory (Trenberth et al 1998; Hoskins and Karoly 1981; Wang et al 2017; Bjerknes 1969; Walker 1925)
To quantify the contribution from stratospheric polar vortex (SPV) to jet stream (Jet), one has to control for the common driver El Niño– Southern Oscillation (ENSO), include ENSO in the regression; this yields a causal effect of SPV on Jet of 0.39, as already found above

Summary

Quantifying causal pathways of teleconnections

V., Arribas, A., Prudden, R., Robinson, N., Saggioro, E. and Shepherd, T. G. (2021) Quantifying causal pathways of teleconnections. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 102 (12). It is advisable to refer to the publisher’s version if you intend to cite from the work. All outputs in CentAUR are protected by Intellectual Property Rights law, including copyright law. Copyright and IPR is retained by the creators or other copyright holders. Terms and conditions for use of this material are defined in the End User Agreement

AMERICAN METEOROLOGICAL SOCIETY

Causal inference theory in a nutshell

Causal reasoning in the statistical analysis of teleconnections

Findings

La Niña