Quantifying adaptive capacity to floods: an assessment of Rincón, PR

Abstract

In recent decades, natural hazards have gained relevance due to increased frequency, intensity, and the devastation they have left behind. This work aims to advance the understanding of adaptive capacity to floods through a comprehensive assessment of adaptive capacity in terms of its three determinants: mitigation, response, and recovery, that is, the actions a community or an individual undertakes before, during, and after being exposed to a flood to be able to prepare for, cope, and recover from its losses. This work addresses the development of a conceptual framework for an adaptive capacity index for floods and uses the municipality of Rincon, PR, as its test bench. The proposed index is developed using literature research on vulnerability attributes to natural hazards and statistical analyses on survey data. Data analyses included Cronbach’s alpha for identifying the vulnerability attributes that measure the same determinant of adaptive capacity and the analytical hierarchy process for fitting the adaptive capacity index. Results include a validated conceptual framework for adaptive capacity and quantitative results for an index on adaptive capacity and each of its determinants. Results on the proposed index are complemented with a discussion on vulnerable hotspots, and an example on how to use the proposed index to allocate preparedness or disaster relief funds. The rankings of county sudivisions, by adaptive capacity and each of its determinants, can be further used by practitioners to prioritize areas where mitigation cost-benefit analysis and next-generation hazard modeling are most needed.