QUANTIFICATION OF UNCERTAINTY IN MANOEUVRING CHARACTERISTICS FOR DESIGN OF UNDERWATER VEHICLES

Abstract

The prediction of manoeuvring characteristics of underwater vehicles during design involves approximations at various stages. This paper attempts to quantify some of the uncertainties involved in the manoeuvring characteristics of underwater vehicles. The first source of uncertainty is in idealization of mathematical model selected for trajectory simulation. This is illustrated for alternative mathematical models in trajectory simulation programs. Next, the values of the hydrodynamic coefficients (HDCs) in the equations of motion have their own levels of uncertainty, depending upon the methods used to determine them. The sensitivity of trajectory simulation results to uncertainty levels in various HDCs is examined. Finally, the level of uncertainty in full-scale measurements of manoeuvres of underwater vehicles is discussed and estimated. It emerges that the cumulative errors in the prediction process during design need to be reduced further, in order to maintain their levels of uncertainty below those of the validation process.