Quantification of rainfall, temperature, and reference evapotranspiration trend and their interrelationship in sub-climatic zones of Bangladesh

Abstract

Rainfall, temperature, and reference evapotranspiration (ET0) have a significant influence on irrigation, aridity, flooding, and crop water requirements. The primary aims of this study were to analyze the trends in rainfall, temperature, and ET0 in seven sub-climatic zones of Bangladesh from 1989 to 2020, as well as examine their interrelationships. The Modified Mann-Kendall method was employed to assess trends, while linear regression was used for trend validation. ET0 was calculated using the FAO-56 Penman-Monteith method, and Sen’s slope was utilized to quantify the magnitude. Spatial analysis was conducted using Inverse Distance Weighting techniques. The findings revealed that annual rainfall increased only in the south-eastern zone, while the other zones experienced a decline. No significant changes were observed in annual maximum temperature, except in the south-eastern, north-eastern, and south-central zones, which showed variations ranging from 0.02 to 0.05 (°C/year). However, the yearly minimum temperature increased in all zones. Additionally, negative changes were observed in the annual magnitude of ET0 for all zones and seasons, except for the south-eastern and north-eastern zones, with a range of 0.01–0.02 mm/year. It was also noted that rainfall and ET0 displayed a strong decreasing relationship, except during the pre-monsoon season. Regarding regional variation, the northern regions exhibited a significant decreasing trend in both rainfall and ET0. The study identified key challenges, including water scarcity and irrigation difficulties due to declining rainfall and evapotranspiration, increased aridity, changing flood patterns, temperature-related impacts on crop growth, regional disparities in climate trends, and the need for effective climate change adaptation measures. Therefore, the study’s findings can contribute to knowledge in areas such as irrigation scheduling, promoting climate-smart agricultural practices, encouraging crop diversification to reduce dependence on water-intensive crops cultivation, and planning resilient water resource management to minimize the effects of environmental shifts, regulate human operations, and implement disaster remedial actions in Bangladesh.