Abstract
We have produced data and developed analysis to build representations for the concentration of spores of nonproteolytic Clostridium botulinum in materials that are used during the manufacture of minimally processed chilled foods in the United Kingdom. Food materials are categorized into homogenous groups which include meat, fish, shellfish, cereals, fresh plant material, dairy liquid, dairy nonliquid, mushroom and fungi, and dried herbs and spices. Models are constructed in a Bayesian framework and represent a combination of information from a literature survey of spore loads from positive-control experiments that establish a detection limit and from dedicated microbiological tests for real food materials. The detection of nonproteolytic C. botulinum employed an optimized protocol that combines selective enrichment culture with multiplex PCR, and the majority of tests on food materials were negative. Posterior beliefs about spore loads center on a concentration range of 1 to 10 spores kg−1. Posterior beliefs for larger spore loads were most significant for dried herbs and spices and were most sensitive to the detailed results from control experiments. Probability distributions for spore loads are represented in a convenient form that can be used for numerical analysis and risk assessments.
Highlights
Processed chilled foods, or partially processed chilled foods, are foods that have fresh-food-like characteristics and satisfy consumer demand for foods that are mildly heated, without added preservatives, higher in nutritional value, and easy to prepare [1,2,3]
As a contribution to risk assessment, an effective quantification of spore loads for nonproteolytic C. botulinum must embrace the large variations in concentration but importantly must represent uncertainties, such as those associated with the experimental detection limit [15]
For C. botulinum, it is essential to appreciate the significance of negative test results in order to establish quantitative beliefs about spore loads in raw materials
Summary
Partially processed chilled foods, are foods that have fresh-food-like characteristics and satisfy consumer demand for foods that are mildly heated, without added preservatives, higher in nutritional value, and easy to prepare [1,2,3]. The consumption of even small amounts of preformed botulinum neurotoxin in food can cause severe illness and potentially death The safety of these foods relies on a combination of good-quality raw materials, mild heat treatment, manufacturing hygiene, chilled storage, and a restricted shelf life [1, 2]. The safety record for mass-produced minimally processed chilled food is very strong, but there have been occasional incidents that have involved time and/or temperature abuse of the final product or home-prepared foods [1, 2, 8, 11, 12].
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