Quantification of model uncertainty of water source heat pump and impacts on energy performance

Abstract

Water source heat pump (WSHP) systems are widely used for cooling and heating due to high efficiency. Accurate modeling of water source heat pump systems is the basis for performance prediction, design and control optimization. However, various uncertainties exist in the simulation and affect the simulation results, which can be categorized into parameter uncertainties and model form uncertainties. Without considering these uncertainties, the performance of water source heat pump systems would be overestimated or underestimated and then affect the decision of stakeholders. The models of heat pumps are especially important for accurate simulation. This paper therefore attempts to quantify the uncertainty of heat pump models and associated impacts on the energy performance of water source heat pump systems. Based on the experiment data of a heat pump, 13 models of heat pumps are examined. The energy performance of the system considering uncertainties in the heat pump model can also be obtained. Results show that the uncertainty in heat pump models can result in a deviation of around 30.55% in the energy consumption. The energy saving potential of WSHP systems can vary between 28.04% to 48.22%. It demonstrates that the uncertainties in models affect the system performance significantly. It is therefore highly recommended to take the uncertainty of heat pump models into account in building energy prediction and design optimization.