Quantification of interactions among agricultural drought indices within Köppen–Geiger climate zones in Bangladesh

Abstract

Agricultural productivity is highly correlated with climatic variations, including drought events. This study is aimed at performing a comprehensive assessment of agricultural drought conditions in the Köppen–Geiger climate zones in Bangladesh, based on the temperature condition index (TCI), vegetation condition index (VCI), and vegetation health index (VHI). The zones are classified as follows: temperate dry winter with a hot summer zone, tropical savannah zone, and tropical monsoon zone. The range of VHI is optimized based on its correlation with TCI and VCI. The correlation among the stratified drought indices is also examined to quantify and measure the strength and direction of the linear relationships between them. Moreover, Mann–Kendall test is conducted to assess the statistical trends in the spatiotemporal propagation of droughts across different climate zones. The balanced correlation approach for VHI reveals that vegetation health is governed by the temperature conditions. Certain variations in the drought intensity, frequency, and duration are observed across climatic zones in earlier years while the recent years are noted with less droughts. Normal or no drought conditions are noticed mostly in the tropical monsoon zone through VCI and VHI. The correlations among the drought classes indicate that VHI is more strongly correlated with TCI than with VCI, while NDVI exhibits stronger correlations with VCI than with either VHI or TCI. The Mann-Kendall test revealed that VCI has significant downward trends in drought categories and an upward trend in normal conditions, whereas VHI and TCI displayed inconsistency in statistical trends. By extensively exploring the agricultural drought conditions within specific climate zones, this study offers valuable insights for agronomists and stakeholders involved in climate resilience planning and agricultural development in Bangladesh.