Abstract
In recent years, the diffusion of electric plants based on renewable non-dispatchable sources has caused large imbalances between the power generation schedule and the actual generation in real time operations, resulting in increased costs for dispatching electric power systems. Although this type of source cannot be programmed, their production can be predicted using soft computing techniques that consider weather forecasts, reducing the imbalance costs paid to the transmission system operator (TSO). The problem is mainly that the forecasting procedures used by the TSO, distribution system operator (DSO) or large producers and they are too expensive, as they use complex algorithms and detailed meteorological data that have to be bought, this can represent an excessive charge for small-scale producers, such as prosumers. In this paper, a cheap photovoltaic (PV) production forecasting method, in terms of reduced computational effort, free-available meteorological data and implementation is discussed, and the economic results regarding the imbalance costs due to the utilization of this method are analyzed. The economic analysis is carried out considering several factors, such as the month, the day type, and the accuracy of the forecasting method. The user can utilize the implemented method to know and reduce the imbalance costs, by adopting particular load management strategies.
Highlights
In recent decades, the development of small-scale generation technologies has contributed to the spread of distributed generation, from renewable non-dispatchable (RnD) sources, especially small-size and building-integrated photovoltaic (PV) systems [1,2]
A feasible forecasting method for a building-integrated PV power system was described; this forecasting method utilizes as input accessible and free data
The obtained nMAE for clear sky conditions was equal to 2.6%, whereas for non-clear sky conditions it was equal to 6.8%
Summary
The development of small-scale generation technologies has contributed to the spread of distributed generation, from renewable non-dispatchable (RnD) sources, especially small-size and building-integrated photovoltaic (PV) systems [1,2]. Such problems have increased the difficulty of managing electrical systems; as a consequence, the dispatching costs have increased due to the energy imbalance [7,8,9] Such an energy imbalance is the deviation of the injection/consumption profile communicated to the transmission system operator (TSO) a day or more ahead, compared to the injection/consumption profile that is exchanged with the grid, as measured by the TSO at the same point. This imbalance and the resulting complexity in dispatching power have led to extra costs, especially for prosumers with RnD power plants of a few kilowatts, such as building-integrated PV plants. In the Italian electrical system, in the last few years, the subsidies that led to the spread of PV systems have drastically decreased along with decreasing
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