Quantification of Expert Judgment in Maintenance Design Decisions

Abstract

Generalized findings, based on work carried out in the development of the Index of Electronic Maintainability for the U. S. Army Signal Corps, are reported on the quantification of expert judgment in the area of maintenance and maintainability. Results of this study indicated that judgments of maintenance consequences can be reliably obtained from field-maintenance personnel if proper precautions are observed in the development and utilization of the rating instruments. Further, these results revealed considerable consistency of ratings across various types of equipment, thus implying that this generality may be extended to new equipments. This generality also eases the problem of obtaining adequate numbers of raters, since the type of experience that the rater bases his judgments on does not appear to be highly specific. No evidence was presented concerning the amount or degree of experience required for competent raters. Finally, three suggested applications of the techniques described are presented, and some of the benefits to be derived from these applications are briefly discussed.