Quality Prediction Model Based on PCA-BP Neural Network for Tobacco Leaves Redrying Process

Abstract

Aiming to the problem that is very difficult to establish the mechanism model of quality for the process of tobacco leaves redrying, this paper proposes a quality prediction model based on principal component analysis (PCA) and improved back propagation (BP)neural network for tobacco leaves redrying process. Firstly, 12 input variables are confirmed by analyzing the factors on quality of tobacco leaves redrying process. Second, the methods of PCA is used to eliminate the correlation of original input layer data, in which 12 input variables are transformed into 6 uncorrelated indicators. Then, the quality prediction model based on improved BP neural network is established. Finally, a simulation experiment is conducted and the average prediction error is as low as 1.03%, the absolute error for forecasting is fluctuated in the range of 0.16% - 2.49%. The result indicates that the model is simpler and has higher stability for prediction, which can completely meet the actual requirements of the tobacco leaves redrying process.