Quality of Forecasts as the Factor Determining the Coordination of Logistics Processes by Logistic Operator

Marzena Kramarz,Mariusz Kmiecik

doi:10.3390/su14021013

Abstract

(1) Background: Currently, logistics operators are struggling with the problem of acquiring new areas to create added value. One of such challenges is acquiring a new function in the form of demand forecasting and coordination skills. The increase in the need to forecast demand is related to the increasing complexity of the distribution network, omnichannel systems and turbulent environment. It is necessary to have a comprehensive approach to the distribution network and to develop competences related to coordination. For the authors, one of the most important coordination factors is the quality of forecasts, especially in relation to modern logistics operators. (2) Methods: In literature studies, the authors combine prognostic abilities with a predisposition to coordinate logistic processes in distribution networks. The aim of the research is to develop a forecasting model that will allow a logistic operator who aspires to coordinate logistics processes to create forecasts in the distribution system. The tool was developed in the R programming language and allows for forecasting based on data from the Warehouse Management System; (3) Results: The quality of forecasts is correlated with the characteristics of the products, the relationship between the manufacturing company and the logistics operator, and the configuration of the distribution network in individual chains. The results of the forecasts were compared with selected features of each of the 5 distribution networks that were tested. In parallel, the attributes of a company capable of forecasting in the distribution network were analyzed. These attributes were also compared to those of the logistics operator. (4) Conclusions: The authors proved that a logistic operator with a set of defined features is capable of generating demand in the entire distribution network.

Highlights

Networks as a structure of networks of cooperating organizations by way of producing and delivering a product to customer [1] are a system composed of production, trade and service organizations [2], in the conditions of nowadays challenges distribution networks are one of the main fields of practical and science interest
Before starting the research related to the possibility of implementing and using the proprietary forecasting model, the characteristics of a logistics company were examined in terms of the attributes that a company capable of forecasting should have
The analysis showed a slight dependence of the relationship between the logistics operator and the network configuration had a positive effect on the quality of forecasts

Summary

Introduction

Networks as a structure of networks of cooperating organizations by way of producing and delivering a product to customer [1] are a system composed of production, trade and service organizations [2], in the conditions of nowadays challenges distribution networks are one of the main fields of practical and science interest. By narrowing the research to the distribution network, authors deliberately limited the scope of the impact of network relations, giving them a beginning in the production of the product (production organizations and those implementing tasks of deferred production) through trade organizations (including various forms of wholesale and retail) and logistics organizations (including various participants of the TSL (transport, forwarding, logistics) market and both shippers, carriers, logistics operators, distribution centers and logistics centers), ending with end customers, i.e., consumers or enterprises using a given product in the production process [3] The literature covers both cooperation between enterprises in distribution channels [4]. The intensity of the distribution network decreases with the increase in the degree of product differentiation (product personalization)

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Conclusion