Abstract

ObjectivesThe COVID-19 pandemic has increased mortality worldwide considerably in 2020. Nevertheless, it is unknown how the increase in mortality translates into a loss in quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs), which is a function of age and the health condition of the deceased patient at time of death. We estimate the QALYs lost in The Netherlands as a result of deaths because of COVID-19 in 2020. MethodsAs a starting point, we use estimates of underlying diseases and the number of COVID-19 deaths in nursing homes as a proxy for underlying health status. In a next step, these are combined with estimates of excess mortality rates and quality of life for different groups to calculate QALYs lost. We compare the results with an alternative scenario, in which COVID-19 deaths occurred randomly across the population regardless of underlying conditions. For this alternative scenario, we use population mortality and average quality of life by age and sex. ResultsAccounting for underlying health status, we estimate that QALYs lost because of COVID-19 mortality are on average 3.9 per death for men and 3.5 for women. This is approximately 3.5 QALYs less than when not taking selective mortality into account. Given 16 308 excess deaths, this translates into 61 032 QALYs lost because of COVID-19. ConclusionsWe conclude that QALYs lost because of COVID-19 mortality are still substantial, even if mortality is strongly concentrated in people with poor health.

Highlights

  • COVID-19 has a global impact on mortality[1] but little is known about the number of life-years and quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) lost

  • When we correct for quality of life (QOL), we get an average of 3.9 QALYs lost per death for men and 3.5 for women

  • The results suggest that, even when mortality is concentrated in people with poorer health, the mean number of QALYs lost per COVID-19 death

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Summary

Introduction

COVID-19 has a global impact on mortality[1] but little is known about the number of life-years and quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) lost. If people in poor health are at an increased risk of dying of COVID-19, the number of QALYs lost is smaller than when deaths occur randomly among the general population. A recent study[3] for the United States, which takes the broader health effects beyond mortality into account, finds that almost 80% of the total QALY loss per COVID-19 infection is because of death. Their estimates of QALYs lost because of death are based on age-specific averages and potentially an overestimation

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