Qualitative risk assessment for the transmission of African swine fever to Thailand from Italy, 2015.

Abstract

African swine fever (ASF) is a highly contagious disease that infects porcine species and has a major impact on the pig industry. Thailand imported approximately4 million kilograms of pig products from Italy in 2015 during the same time as an ASF outbreak was occurring on the island of Sardinia in Italy, thereby posing a potential risk of introduction of ASF virus (ASFV) into Thailand. To estimate whether or not importing pig products from Italy is a risk for Thailand and to identify gaps in control and prevention measures, risk analysis was performed. The objective of this study was to estimate the risk of the introduction of ASFV through imported pig products from Italy into Thailand in 2015, using qualitative risk assessment approaches, with the aim to define specific control and preventive measures. The framework used to analyse risk in this study was composed of hazard identification, qualitative risk assessment and risk mitigation. Qualitative risk assessment revealed that the likelihood of introduction of ASFV into Thailand was negligible, while the level of consequence of virus introduction was high. The overall risk was determined to be negligible. Risk mitigation recommendations were framed to minimise the risk. In addition, this study provided a baseline qualitative risk of ASFV introduction and a systematic approach to a qualitative risk analysis.