Qualitative response models and the estimation of energy savings from utility conservation programs

Abstract

Reducing uncertainty in the measurement of energy-saving effects of conservation retrofit programs is the focus of this paper. Measuring the actual quantity of energy savings is an elusive goal. The goal of an evaluation of energy savings is to measure the difference between energy consumption of participant households and that of the same households in the absence of the program. Because the program exists, this difference can only be estimated. We present methodologies which can be used to approximate participant usage in the absence of a program. The first two models are currently applied in evaluating these conservation programs. The last are innovative models using qualitative choice techniques designed to correct for self-selection bias.