Abstract
Sub-Saharan social-ecological systems are undergoing changes in environmental conditions, including modifications in rainfall pattern and biodiversity loss. Consequences of such changes depend on complex causal chains which call for integrated management strategies whose efficiency could benefit from ecosystem dynamic modeling. However, ecosystem models often require lots of quantitative information for estimating parameters, which is often unavailable. Alternatively, qualitative modeling frameworks have proved useful for explaining ecosystem responses to perturbations, while only requiring qualitative information about social-ecological interactions and events and providing more general predictions due to their validity for wide ranges of parameter values. In this paper, we propose the Ecological Discrete-Event Network (EDEN), an innovative qualitative dynamic modeling framework based on “if-then” rules generating non-deterministic dynamics. Based on expert knowledge, observations, and literature, we use EDEN to assess the effect of permanent changes in surface water and herbivores diversity on vegetation and socio-economic transitions in an East African savanna. Results show that water availability drives changes in vegetation and socio-economic transitions, while herbivore functional groups have highly contrasted effects depending on the group. This first use of EDEN in a savanna context is promising for bridging expert knowledge and ecosystem modeling.
Highlights
African savannas provide many ecosystem services to human societies [1]
We introduce the Ecological Discrete-Event Network (EDEN) modeling framework [53] for modeling the social-ecological dynamics of an East-African savanna
To assess whether changes in environmental conditions modified the set of vegetation and socio-economic transitions (Q2 and Q3, respectively), we focused on specific aspects of the dynamics, i.e., vegetation and socioeconomic states and transitions that were relevant to our model questions
Summary
African savannas provide many ecosystem services to human societies [1]. Their high primary production support livestock herding and smallholder farming [2], while large mammal populations contribute to large-scale nutrient flows and tourism [3,4,5]. Human activities locally retroact on wildlife and vegetation [9,10]. These feedbacks between social-ecological components call for integrated ecosystem management. We introduce an innovative modeling framework for assessing the effect of water availability and herbivores diversity on vegetation and socio-economic dynamics of an East African savanna
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