Qualitative Dynamics of the Coffee Rust Epidemic: Educating Intuition with Theoretical Ecology

Abstract

The coffee rust disease (agent Hemileia vastatrix), a chronic and sometimes severe problem in Mesoamerica that burst dramatically onto the scene late in 2012, threatens the livelihoods of millions of farmers, and will potentially distort the economies of many of the world's most vulnerable nations. The immediate drivers of this particular epidemic are not known. Recent research, however, suggests that its source may be related to the simplification of a complex web of ecological interactions, a web that defies simple one-on-one attempts at management. Drawing on this research, we argue that the underlying ecological interrelationships in the system may make this particular agronomic problem intractable if conventional control methods are all that are implemented. It is reasonable to suggest that the situation calls for a revitalization of what pest control specialists have come to call autonomous pest control.