Abstract
We have proposed an unprecedented deterministic model of Lassa Hemorrhagic fever (LHF) model with nonlinear force of LHF infection to capture the transmission dynamics and long-term effects of the disease. The Qualitative analyses we have conveyed on this model using well-established methods viz: Cauchy's differential theorem, Birkhoff & Rota's theorems verify and reveal the well-posedness of the model respectively. We established that an LHF-free equilibrium termed the disease-free equilibrium (DFE) exists for this model and this equilibrium, however, from our stability analyses, tends to be stable when the basic reproduction number computed via the next generation matrix method is less than unity (one); and unstable otherwise. Furthermore, we have carried out a sensitivity analysis to check for the variation effects of the model parameters when increased or decreased using the normalized forward-sensitivity index; unraveling the most sensitive parameters which requires the attention of the healthcare workers as; the effective contact rates β1,β2andβ3, and the rodents’ recruitment rate ΩR. After which numerical simulations of the model were carried out to verify our qualitative analyses (Stability and sensitivity analysis) and to study the dynamical behavior of the model; showing that the presence of saturation instantaneously causes the system to approach a DFE/LHF-Free equilibrium. From these qualitative analyses and numerical simulation results, we recommend early intervention and early treatment of Lassa hemorrhagic virus infection (LAHV) with Ribavirin on the infected, maximum hygiene practices and periodic evacuation of rodents in households in order to curb the recruitment of wild/rodents.
Highlights
Lassa fever (LF) is a zoonotic disease which means that it is being transmitted from animals to humans
We established that a Lassa Haemorrhagic fever (LHF)-free equilibrium termed the disease-free equilibrium (DFE) exists for this model and this equilibrium from our stability analyses, tends to be stable when the basic reproduction number computed via generation matrix method is less than unity; and unstable if otherwise
We have simulated the model using clinical, estimated, and assumed data extracted from WHO, Nigerian centre for disease control (NCDC), and other prominent literatures
Summary
Lassa fever (LF) is a zoonotic disease which means that it is being transmitted from animals to humans (animal borne disease). Contact with the Lassa Hemorrhagic fever virus may occur when an individual inhales tiny particles in the air contaminated with the infected rodent excretions. About 80% of persons infected with Lassa virus are asymptomatic but the remaining 20%, the illness manifests as a febrile illness of variable severity associated with multiple organ dysfunctions with or without haemorrhage [WHO, (2020)] When symptoms occur they typically include fever, weakness, headaches, vomiting, general malaise, and muscle pains. The risk of death once infected frequently occurs within two weeks of the onset of symptoms [WHO, (2016)] Among those who survive about a quarter have hearing loss, which improves within three months in about half of these cases. Lassa fever is associated with occasional epidemics, during which the case-fatality rate can reach 50% in hospitalized patients
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