Quadratic growth during the COVID-19 pandemic: merging hotspots and reinfections

Abstract

The existence of an exponential growth phase during early stages of a pandemic is often taken for granted. However, for the 2019 novel coronavirus epidemic, the early exponential phase lasted only for about six days, while the quadratic growth prevailed for forty days until it spread to other countries and continued, again quadratically, but with a shorter time constant. Here we show that this rapid phase is followed by a subsequent slow-down where the coefficient is reduced to almost the original value at the outbreak. This can be explained by the merging of previously disconnected sites that occurred after the disease jumped (nonlocally) to a relatively small number of separated sites. Subsequent variations in the slope with continued growth can qualitatively be explained as a result of reinfections and variations in their rate. We demonstrate that the observed behavior can be described by a standard epidemiological model with spatial extent and reinfections included. Time-dependent changes in the spatial diffusion coefficient can also model corresponding variations in the slope.