QSAR Modeling and Prediction of the Endocrine-Disrupting Potencies of Brominated Flame Retardants

Abstract

In the European Union REACH regulation, the chemicals with particularly harmful behaviors, such as endocrine disruptors (EDs), are subject to authorization, and the identification of safer alternatives to these chemicals is required. In this context, the use of quantitative structure-activity relationships (QSAR) becomes particularly useful to fill the data gap due to the very small number of experimental data available to characterize the environmental and toxicological profiles of new and emerging pollutants with ED behavior such as brominated flame retardants (BFRs). In this study, different QSAR models were developed on different responses of endocrine disruption measured for several BFRs. The multiple linear regression approach was applied to a variety of theoretical molecular descriptors, and the best models, which were identified from all of the possible combinations of the structural variables, were internally validated for their performance using the leave-one-out (Q(LOO)(2) = 73-91%) procedure and scrambling of the responses. External validation was provided, when possible, by splitting the data sets in training and test sets (range of Q(EXT)(2) = 76-90%), which confirmed the predictive ability of the proposed equations. These models, which were developed according to the principles defined by the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development to improve the regulatory acceptance of QSARs, represent a simple tool for the screening and characterization of BFRs.