Abstract
With the increasing use and complexity of urban natural gas pipelines, the occurrence of accidents owing to leakage, fire, explosion, etc., has increased. Based on Quantitative Risk Analysis (QRA) models and Geographic Information System (GIS) technology, we put forward a quantitative risk simulation model for urban natural gas pipeline, combining with a multi-level grid-based pre-warning model. We develop a simulation and pre-warning model named QRA-Grid, conducting fire and explosion risk assessment, presenting the risk by using a grid map. Experiments show that by using the proposed method, we can develop a fire and explosion accident pre-warning model for gas pipelines, and effectively predict areas in which accidents will happen. As a result, we can make a focused and forceful policy in areas which have some potential defects in advance, and even carry out urban planning once more, rebuilding it to prevent the risk.
Highlights
With the long-term use of urban natural gas pipelines, large-scale laying and increasingly complex, related accidents such as leaks, fires and explosions have occurred frequently [1]
Through analysis of the above research and application, we could see that the key to effectively resisting disasters is to accurately predict and evaluate the occurrence, development, and destruction of disasters, and use Quantitative Risk Analysis methods to analyze the impact of accidents
In order to conduct a risk analysis of the entire study area, we randomly selected six accident pointFsiginuraell4a. rTehaes. gWrihde-bnaasefidreparcec-iwdeanrnt ioncgcumrsaapt: t(ha)e Fseirleecrtieskd pproei-nwta, rancicnogr;d(ibn)gEtxoptlhoseioCn-lreivskelpdrea-mage standwaarrdnionfgt.he building for the thermal radiation, the calculated damage radius is selected for buffer analysis to determine the dangerous building that is affected by the urban pipe network fire
Summary
With the long-term use of urban natural gas pipelines, large-scale laying and increasingly complex, related accidents such as leaks, fires and explosions have occurred frequently [1]. Through analysis of the above research and application, we could see that the key to effectively resisting disasters is to accurately predict and evaluate the occurrence, development, and destruction of disasters, and use Quantitative Risk Analysis methods to analyze the impact of accidents. This method provides an effective solution to the above problems, but lacks grading for different levels of warning. Through the above two technologies, this paper adds a graded pre-warning model, quantifies the risk into the spatial grid, proposes a QRA-Grid model, and develops a quantitative risk simulation and early warning system for urban natural gas pipelines
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