Pyrrhic victory? Towards a decision support system for simulation projects in industrial practice based on Fuzzy cognitive mapping

Abstract

Simulation has become a popular methodology to solve complex non-linear problems in research and practice. Yet, particularly in industrial practice, assessing the individual applicability of simulation projects remains an intricate, time-consuming and precarious challenge. This paper models simulation applicability by tapping into expert knowledge of simulation engineers with multiple years of simulation project experience. We decompose simulation applicability into a number of interconnected concept variables, which ultimately control the likelihood of project success and failure. The system is modeled in the form of a Fuzzy Cognitive Map, in which the nodes represent positive or negative project influencers in variables and link their interconnectedness. In doing so, this paper is the first to exceed the scope of simulation success factors or systemic risk assessment by addressing the need to provide holistic decision support on the context-dependent applicability of simulation projects. We contextualize organizational, environmental and methodology-related cause-effect relationships to develop a Fuzzy Decision Support System (FDSS) prototype that can guide scholars and practitioners when planning to adopt a simulation project for industrial purposes. The approach is illustrated using three applications, where the assessment has been conducted for (1) a large, (2) a medium-sized, as well as (3) a small organization, and evaluated through sensitivity analyses and a comparative survey. Ultimately, our study contributes to existing knowledge on success and risk factors for simulation projects, extends the realms of FCM to the case of simulation projects and sets a starting point for additional research on the context-specific applicability of the simulation methodology.