PV output estimation method of power distribution station area based on federated learning framework and improved transformer neural network

Abstract

In contemporary distribution networks (DNs), characterized by extensive integration of distributed energy, the photovoltaic (PV) power output data from the distribution station areas become crucial for system planning and operational optimization. Since many PVs are installed behind-the-meter (BTM), it is difficult to directly obtain PV power data through measurement devices. Therefore, it is important to estimate the BTM PV power from the aggregating data that can be directly obtained. However, the existing estimation methods usually require centralized large-scale data training, which brings certain privacy leakage risks. In order to solve these problems, we propose a federated learning-based improved Transformer Neural Network strategy to estimate BTM PV generation at the community level with data privacy protection. Initially, enhanced Transformer neural networks, employing a fused-attention mechanism, are deployed to precisely delineate the solar power generation pattern. Subsequently, federated learning principles facilitate the sharing of specific parameters among multiple edge endpoints and a central server. This model bifurcates into two layers: an individual layer, where parameters are retained locally, and an exchange layer, where parameters are collectively shared and conveyed through momentum aggregation. This dual-layer structure effectively synchronizes the capture of both unique and common characteristics. The test on the Australian residential load dataset verifies the effectiveness of the proposed method.