Pushed out of the education system: using a natural experiment to evaluate consequences for boys

Britt Østergaard Larsen,Lars Højsgaard Andersen,Kira Solveig Larsen

doi:10.1007/s11292-020-09444-9

Britt Østergaard Larsen, Lars Højsgaard Andersen + Show 1 more

Open Access

https://doi.org/10.1007/s11292-020-09444-9

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Abstract

ObjectivesTo examine the short-term effects of admission requirements for upper secondary vocational education and training (VET) on enrollment and criminal offending among academically low-achieving boys.MethodsWe apply multi-group difference-in-differences models to full population data and analyze an educational policy reform in Denmark (N = 60,759).ResultsThe reform caused a 16 percentage points lower enrollment in VET among academically low-achieving boys, and their risk of being charged with a crime increased by up to two percentage points 9 months after the end of compulsory school. However, after 12 months, the effect on criminal charges disappeared.ConclusionIn the education-crime nexus, educational enrollment in upper secondary education is an understudied margin, which has important implications for both scholars and policy-makers. Limitations include the short follow-up period and that the analyses examine effects for boys only.

Highlights

Given that educational attainment influences health, employment, and income, it plays a significant role in determining individuals’ long-term outcomes (e.g., Card 1999; Oreopoulos and Salvanes 2011)
We describe enrollment rates into different types of upper secondary education to show that the group of boys on which we focus in this study failed to enroll in any upper secondary education after the reform
If we compare the DD findings of the two outcomes and calculate the elasticity between enrollment rates and charge rates, our results suggest that a 1% decrease in enrollment rates to vocational education and training (VET) leads to a 0.69% increase in criminal charges among low-achieving boys after 9 months

Summary

Introduction

Given that educational attainment influences health, employment, and income, it plays a significant role in determining individuals’ long-term outcomes (e.g., Card 1999; Oreopoulos and Salvanes 2011). The present study contributes to a recent line of research using natural experiments to examine the effects of education on crime along two lines. Most of these studies provide knowledge on the effects of the length of education, school starting age, and school attendance on criminal behavior (e.g., Bell et al 2016; Brugård and Falch 2013; Landersø et al 2017; Luallen 2006). There can be substantial (unobserved) differences between the population of adolescents in and outside of the education system, as pointed out by, for example, Sweeten et al (2009) and Kirk and Sampson (2013), who document significant differences between dropouts and students. We argue that educational enrollment is a central margin and needs to be a central focus in research on the effects of education on crime

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