Purchase experiments of extra-ordinary and regular influence strategies using artificial and real brands

Abstract

We apply basic tenets from operant conditioning and cognitive decision theory to test the impacts of immediate and long-term impacts of extra-ordinary and regular influence strategies on consumer brand choice. Seven hypotheses are tested in an in-home experiment with 114 subjects assigned randomly to five groups. Hypothesis 1: Most consumers in a new environment (e.g., with three to four brands per product category) initially try all available brands. Hypothesis 2: Across purchase periods, unassisted by extra-ordinary influence strategies, a brand's penetration rate (i.e., share of customers buying the brand) declines in the long run. Hypothesis 3: Across purchase periods unassisted by extra-ordinary influence strategies, the average buying frequency per buyer (BFB) for a brand remains stable. Hypothesis 4: Substantial increases (decreases) in a brand's penetration occurs during periods when extra-ordinary (i.e., assisted trial) influence strategies are implemented, e.g., price decreases (increases) influence substantial penetration increases (decreases). Hypothesis 5: Most of the impacts on penetration resulting from extra-ordinary influence strategies disappear in subsequent unassisted purchase periods. Hypothesis 6: However, the relatively small long-term impacts of extra-ordinary influence strategies may be substantive, e.g., the negative long-term effect reported by Doob et al. (Doob AN, Carlsmith JM, Freedman JL, Landauer TK, Tom Jr. S. Effect of initial selling price on subsequent sales. J Pers Soc Psychol 1969;11:345–50.). Hypothesis 7: Increases and decreases in brand purchases are associated with positive and negative attitude shifts toward the brand, respectively. Hypothesis 8: The NBD/LSD models are accurate in forecasting penetration and buying frequency in unassisted (i.e., ordinary influence) purchase periods. The findings support all hypotheses except Hypotheses 3 and 7. Implications for developing a theory of influence strategies on short-term and long-term behavior are discussed.