Abstract
We report the results of a conceptual replication of a study that reported that pupil dilation can predict potentially threatening random events above chance level. In this study, participants’ pupil dilation was used to predict the appearance of a threatening or a neutral stimulus, presented randomly in a double sequence of ten trials with replacement, i.e. replacing the chosen trial for the future extractions.In the first experiment, with a sample of 100 participants, the average correct prediction was 55.9%, with a small difference between the two stimuli.This effect was further tested in an exact pre-registered study where the average correct prediction was 58.7%. The reliability of these findings was checked utilizing both a frequentist and a Bayesian statistical parameters estimate approach.These findings collectively support the hypothesis that pupil dilation can be used to anticipate random and therefore theoretically “unpredictable” events in an implicit unconscious way that is without a conscious awareness, and that this ability is another characteristic of the powerful anticipatory adaptive systems of our psychophysiological system.
Highlights
IntroductionThe anticipation, or prediction, of future events is a fundamental activity of our conscious and implicit, (i.e. unconscious) cognitive abilities
The anticipation, or prediction, of future events is a fundamental activity of our conscious and implicit, cognitive abilities
We demonstrate that pupil dilation (PD) reactions differ before the random presentation of a neutral or a potentially threatening stimulus
Summary
The anticipation, or prediction, of future events is a fundamental activity of our conscious and implicit, (i.e. unconscious) cognitive abilities. At the core of the anticipatory activity is an innate sensitivity to the structure and statistics of the environment in order to build up correct representations of each event in order to prepare the organism to perceive and act in a way that minimizes errors and reduces unnecessary adjustments (e.g. Clark[5]). This raises the question of how it is possible for the organism to prepare for future events if they are unpredictable or probable?.
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