Abstract
We analyze the relationship between fuel prices and cycling in Germany. The estimated cross-elasticity is positive and significant for utilitarian traffic, and increased in 2022 when prices became more salient. To derive our results, we exploit fuel-price variations caused by the Russian invasion of Ukraine, among other factors. Cross-elasticities are then estimated by running both OLS and IV regression models on hourly bicycle counts from 72 automated counting stations. While cross-elasticities have been estimated for low-cycling countries such as the U.S. or Australia, our results provide valuable insights for transport planning and sustainable policy making in higher-cycling countries.
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