Abstract
<h3>Abstract</h3> <h3>Rationale</h3> Activins are inflammatory and tissue-repair-related members of the TGFβ-superfamily that have been implicated in the pathogenesis of several immuno-inflammatory disorders including sepsis/acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS). We hypothesized that they might be of particular relevance to COVID-19 pathophysiology. <h3>Objectives</h3> To assess the involvement of the Activin-Follistatin-axis in COVID-19 pathophysiology. <h3>Methods</h3> Levels of Activins -A, -B and their physiological inhibitor Follistatin, were retrospectively analyzed in 314 serum samples from 117 COVID-19 patients derived from two independent centers and compared with common demographic, clinical and laboratory parameters. Optimal-scaling with ridge-regression was used to screen variables and establish a prediction model. <h3>Main Results</h3> The Activin/Follistatin-axis was significantly deregulated during the course of COVID-19 and was independently associated with severity and in-hospital mortality. FACT-CLINYCoD, a novel disease scoring system, adding one point for each of Follistatin >6235 pg/ml, Activin-A >591 pg/ml, Activin-B >249 pg/ml, CRP >10.3 mg/dL, LDH >427 U/L, Intensive Care Unit (ICU) admission, Neutrophil/Lymphocyte-Ratio >5.6, Years of Age >61, Comorbidities >1 and D-dimers >1097 ng/ml, efficiently predicted and monitored fatal outcome independently of multiplicity and timing of sampling (AUC: 0.951±0.032, p<10<sup>-6</sup>). Validation in 35 samples derived from a third hospital indicated comparable AUC (0.958±0.086, p=0.032). <h3>Conclusion</h3> This study unravels the link between Activin/Folistatin-axis and COVID-19 mortality and introduces FACT-CLINYCoD, a novel pathophysiology-based tool that copes with the dynamic and heterogeneous nature of COCVID-19, predicts disease outcome and supports clinical decision making. Prospective large-scale validation of this calculator, as well as investigation of the mechanisms linking Activin/Folistatin-axis to COVID-19 pathogenesis is warranted.
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