Pulling levers in New Haven, CT: an analysis of the TimeZup initiative and its impact on murder, robbery, and assault

Abstract

PurposeThis study examines the effect of TimeZup – a lever pulling strategy designed to reduce gun violence in New Haven, Connecticut.Design/methodology/approachA series of ARIMA and dynamically complete models are estimated to determine if TimeZup was associated with any significant changes in New Haven's murder, firearm robbery and firearm assault rates. A quasi-experimental design is also used to compare New Haven to six, similarly situated cities in the Northeastern United States.FindingsThe results indicate that New Haven experienced a significant decrease in its firearm robbery rate in the summer of 1997 – a date that preceded TimeZup but coincided with other lever pulling strategies implemented by the New Haven Police Department.Originality/valueAlthough an older program, TimeZup was not rigorously analyzed. After the conclusion of the program, basic pre- and post-comparisons suggested TimeZup was effective. Using a rigorous methodology, this study shows it was not. This study points out that interventions such as TimeZup often coincide with pre-existing crime reduction strategies. Evaluators should account for those pre-existing strategies because it may be those strategies – and not the intervention being examined – that are impacting crime rates.