Publication bias in the price effects of monetary policy: A meta-regression analysis for emerging and developing economies

Abstract

Using 43 studies conducted between 2001 and 2019, we employ a meta-regression analysis (MRA) to synthesize literature findings on the effects of monetary policy on price levels in 32 emerging and developing countries. We find strong evidence of a negative publication bias for all types of price effects (short-term, medium-term and maximum effects). Primary studies published in academic journals tend to report stronger negative effects. A cluster analysis and a mixed-effect multilevel model confirm the null hypothesis of a genuine price effect. Employing the “best practice” method, we find that the genuine effect is negative. In the other words, increasing policy interest rates appears to be effective in controlling inflation in emerging and developing countries. In comparison with the genuine price effect in advanced countries reported by Rusnak et al. (2013), our study indicates that the genuine price effects in emerging and developing countries are weaker than in advanced countries.