Publication bias and the tourism-led growth hypothesis.

Nikeel Nishkar Kumar,Navneet Nimesh Kumar,Arvind Patel,Ravinay Amit Chandra,Hiranya K. Nath

doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0258730

Nikeel Nishkar Kumar, Navneet Nimesh Kumar + Show 3 more

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https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0258730

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Abstract

This study attempts to solve the publication bias suggested by recent review articles in the tourism-growth literature. Publication bias is the tendency to report favourable and significant results. Method and data triangulation, and the Solow-Swan model are applied. A sample from 1995 to 2018 is considered with Tonga as a case study. The approach consists of multiple methods, data frequencies, exchange rates, structural breaks, and an overall tourism index developed using principal component analysis (PCA). Consistent results across these dimensions are obtained with the PCA models. Tourism has small, positive, and statistically significant economic growth effects. Theoretically consistent values of the capital share and exchange rates are obtained. The results indicate the importance of multiple methods and the overall tourism index in assessing the tourism-growth relationship and minimising publication biases. The practical implication is the provision of robust elasticity estimates and better economic policies.

Highlights

International tourism is generally considered a key sector for growth and development in developing countries
Noting the vast differences in the mean value of arrivals and receipts, the principal component analysis (PCA) is run on the log of both indicators
Data and method triangulation are proposed as potential solutions to the publication bias problem [3,4,5]

Summary

Introduction

International tourism is generally considered a key sector for growth and development in developing countries. It attracts foreign exchange and allows developing countries to import new capital goods [1]. Imported capital goods are infused with new technology which raises the technology level in the country. It supports human capital accumulation as workers acquire new skills and knowledge by using the new capital goods [1]. Apart from productivity gains, there are spill-over benefits because the new skills and knowledge circulates freely between industries. Research suggests that developing the tourism industry is supportive of economic growth [3]

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