Public Welfare Expenditure in OECD Countries: Towards a Reconciliation of Inconsistent Findings

Abstract

In this paper some of the reasons for inconsistent findings on the determinants of welfare expenditure and outcome in the advanced capitalist countries are examined. Particular attention is paid to the work of Harold Wilensky and John Stephens on the grounds that their research illustrates some key methodological and theoretical differences in this field. Several problems of conceptualization and measurement in their work are identified. Hypotheses are derived from their work and tested against data on seventeen OECD countries at five time points from 1960 to 1980. The conclusion is drawn that inconsistent findings in the field derive from different conceptualizations and operationalizations of key terms and, more fundamentally, from different conceptions of the welfare state.