Public Understanding of Ebola Risks: Mastering an Unfamiliar Threat.

Baruch Fischhoff,Dana Rose Garfin,Gabrielle Wong‐Parodi,Roxane Cohen Silver,E Alison Holman

doi:10.1111/risa.12794

Baruch Fischhoff, Dana Rose Garfin + Show 3 more

Open Access

https://doi.org/10.1111/risa.12794

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Abstract

Ebola was the most widely followed news story in the United States in October 2014. Here, we ask what members of the U.S. public learned about the disease, given the often chaotic media environment. Early in 2015, we surveyed a representative sample of 3,447 U.S. residents about their Ebola-related beliefs, attitudes, and behaviors. Where possible, we elicited judgments in terms sufficiently precise to allow comparing them to scientific estimates (e.g., the death toll to date and the probability of dying once ill). Respondents' judgments were generally consistent with one another, with scientific knowledge, and with their self-reported behavioral responses and policy preferences. Thus, by the time the threat appeared to have subsided in the United States, members of the public, as a whole, had seemingly mastered its basic contours. Moreover, they could express their beliefs in quantitative terms. Judgments of personal risk were weakly and inconsistently related to reported gender, age, education, income, or political ideology. Better educated and wealthier respondents saw population risks as lower; females saw them as higher. More politically conservative respondents saw Ebola as more transmissible and expressed less support for public health policies. In general, respondents supported providing "honest, accurate information, even if that information worried people." These results suggest the value of proactive communications designed to inform the lay public's decisions, thoughts, and emotions, and informed by concurrent surveys of their responses and needs.

Highlights

IntroductionThe ensuing months offered saturation media coverage.[1] Responding effectively to the threat required members of the public to learn about the disease, its transmission pathways, and the institutions responsible for its control
Prior to Summer 2014, few people had more than a vague awareness of Ebola
Our analyses ask the practical question of what members of the lay public had learned about Ebola, despite the chaotic media environment; the methodological question of whether they could express their beliefs in quantitative terms; and the theoretical question of what was the combined effect of the cognitive, social, and affective processes potentially activated by the threat at a time of at least temporary relief, following an emotionally intense period

Summary

Introduction

The ensuing months offered saturation media coverage.[1] Responding effectively to the threat required members of the public to learn about the disease, its transmission pathways, and the institutions responsible for its control. They needed that knowledge in the quantitative terms required for decision making. They needed to know not just that face masks might help, but how much protection they provided, before deciding whether to rely on masks when visiting potentially contaminated places. Our analyses ask the practical question of what members of the lay public had learned about Ebola, despite the chaotic media environment; the methodological question of whether they could express their beliefs in quantitative terms; and the theoretical question of what was the combined effect of the cognitive, social, and affective processes potentially activated by the threat at a time of at least temporary relief, following an emotionally intense period

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