Public transport demand estimation by calibrating a trip distribution‐mode choice (TDMC) model from passenger counts: A case study in Bandung, Indonesia

Abstract

AbstractA problem always found in developing countries is the lack of information required for short, medium and long term planning purposes due to money and time constraints. This becomes even more valuable for problems which require ‘quick‐response’ treatment. A flexible model approach allows monitoring a long term plan in order to check its short term performance at regular intervals using easily‐available data. If found necessary, changes to the plan may be evaluated and eventually implemented. For this reason, the approach is deemed appropriate for long term planning and project evaluation even in the case of rapid changes in land‐use, socio‐economic and population parameters usually occurs in most of developing countries.A key element of the approach is a system to update the forecasting model (in particular its trip distribution and mode choice elements) using low‐cost and/or easily‐available information. Traffic counts are particularly attractive to be used in developing countries for planning purposes. The estimation of public transport demand, particularly important for planning purposes, is an expensive and time consuming undertaking. The need for a low‐cost method to estimate the public transport demand is therefore obvious.The objective of this paper is the development of methods and techniques for modelling the public transport demand using traffic (passenger) count information and other simple zonal‐planning data. We will report on a family of aggregate model combined with a family of mode choice logit models which can be calibrated from traffic (passenger) counts and other low‐cost data. The model examined was the Gravity (GR) model combined with the Multi‐Nominal‐Logit (MNL) model. Non‐Linear‐Least‐Squares (NLLS) estimation method was used to calibrate the parameter of the combined model. The combined TDMC model and the calibration method have been implemented into a micro‐computer package capable of dealing with the study area consisting of up to 300 zones, 3000 links and 6000 nodes.The approach has been tested using the 1988 Public Transport Data Survey in Bandung (Indonesia). The model was found to provide a reasonably good fit and the calibrated parameter can then be used for forecasting purposes. General conclusion regarding the advantageous and the applicability of the approach to other environments are given.