Public Tolerance of Retributive Violence against Insurgencies

Abstract

AbstractWhat drives public support for retributive violence against insurgents, a desire for revenge or security? We consider the case of suspected Islamic State (ISIS) militants in Mosul Iraq. Using survey experiments, we inquire about public support for judicial as well as extrajudicial violence against insurgent combatants. We sample among ordinary civilians in Mosul who lived under ISIS rule as well as ISIS-affiliated families in displacement camps outside Mosul. We find that many Mosul civilians are highly tolerant of retributive violence against insurgents, but this tolerance is driven primarily by security concerns rather than revenge. In contrast, others, especially in displacement camps, oppose the punitive killing of insurgents because they regard such actions as counterproductive to long-term security goals. This tension speaks to potential security dilemmas surrounding retaliatory responses to insurgency. Instead, public security interests may be better served through nonviolent strategies, to include negotiations with insurgent forces and more restorative approaches to justice.