Public support for supply-focused transport policies: Vehicle emissions, low-carbon fuels, and ZEV sales standards in Canada and California

Abstract

Abstract We assess public support for three supply-focused transport regulations: vehicle emissions standards (VES), low-carbon fuel standards (LCFS), and zero-emissions vehicle (ZEV) sales mandates. We implemented a survey across several regions with varying policy experience, using representative samples from Canada (n=1,552) and the US state of California (n=484). The survey evaluated respondents’: (1) awareness of each policy, (2) support and opposition for these policies, and (3) associations with personal characteristics. We find that policy awareness is similarly low in all regions, with fewer than 5% mentioning any of the policies in an open-ended question. Once prompted with multiple-choice style questions, stated awareness is higher for a VES (33–53%), followed by a LCFS (19–38%), and then a ZEV mandate (6–17%). In some cases, awareness is higher in regions that actually had a given policy in place, or for a longer period. Support for strong VES and LCFS is similarly high across regions (around 60–80% support) and support for a strong ZEV mandate is lower (34–55% support) – though all have higher support than strong carbon pricing (22–30%). Regression analyses indicate that policy support is most strongly associated with respondent values and trust in government, with only a minor role for demographic factors. Interaction effects indicate that policy support in the province of Quebec and California is associated with a lack of trust in the federal government but greater trust in provincial or state governments. Conclusions indicate that policymakers may want to focus on policies that are both effective and acceptable to the public.